A. Kellogg's View

Kim Jong-il’s death and the future of the Korean Peninsula

As someone who has studied the Korean Peninsula for a long time, I wish I had insightful commentary on what the death of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will mean for the future Korea. The truth is the only thing anyone knows is that there is more uncertainty about North Korea’s power structure and stability than at any time in more than 60 years. There are very serious security concerns with any hint of instability in the North given that they not only have some nuclear ability, but also one of the largest conventional armies in the world. While North Korea could not win a war with South, they can kill millions if a power faction arises that decides that risking a war is better than losing control over North Korea’s limited resources. This is, of course, the worst case scenario. The real test, however, may be if China, the US, South Korea, and Japan can manage to finally work together to contain the possibility of a North Korean collapse.